Executive Summary
The African M&A landscape is poised for significant evolution in 2026, driven by a confluence of factors including currency stabilisation in key markets, increased regulatory clarity, and growing appetite from both regional and international acquirers. This report examines the key trends, sector dynamics, and structural considerations that will shape deal activity across the continent.
Market Overview
After a challenging 2024-2025 period marked by currency volatility and elevated interest rates, African M&A activity is showing signs of recovery. Deal volumes in Q4 2025 increased 18% quarter-over-quarter, with aggregate deal value reaching $12.4 billion across the continent.
Key Statistics
- Total Deal Value (2025): $42.3 billion
- Number of Transactions: 847
- Average Deal Size: $49.9 million
- Cross-Border Deals: 34% of total
Sector Hotspots
Financial Services
The banking sector remains the most active for M&A, driven by:
- Regulatory consolidation mandates in Nigeria and Ghana pushing smaller banks to merge
- Digital transformation creating opportunities for fintech acquisitions by traditional banks
- Pan-African expansion strategies by regional banking groups
Notable expected activity includes continued consolidation in the Nigerian banking sector, where the CBN's recapitalisation requirements are expected to trigger significant merger activity.
Energy & Infrastructure
Renewable energy assets are commanding premium valuations as institutional investors seek exposure to Africa's energy transition:
- Solar IPPs in South Africa and Kenya
- Wind projects in Morocco and Egypt
- Distributed generation assets across West Africa
Infrastructure fund dry powder targeting Africa now exceeds $15 billion, creating a competitive environment for quality assets.
Technology & Digital
African tech continues to mature, with 2026 expected to see:
- Consolidation among B2B fintech players
- Increased strategic acquisitions by global tech companies
- Growth equity rounds converting to full acquisitions
Structural Considerations
Currency Dynamics
The stabilisation of key currencies—particularly the Naira, Cedi, and Kenyan Shilling—has improved deal certainty and valuation negotiations. Vendors are increasingly willing to transact as currency hedging costs have decreased.
Regulatory Environment
Several markets have introduced clearer M&A frameworks:
- Kenya: New Competition Act amendments streamline merger notifications
- Nigeria: SEC guidelines clarify minority squeeze-out procedures
- South Africa: Competition Commission processes have accelerated
Financing Landscape
Deal financing remains challenging but improving:
- Local currency acquisition financing more available
- DFI participation in buyout structures increasing
- Vendor financing becoming standard practice
Outlook by Region
East Africa
Kenya remains the regional hub, with expectations of:
- 2-3 large financial services transactions
- Continued private equity exits
- Cross-border deals into Tanzania and Uganda
West Africa
Nigeria's banking consolidation will dominate headlines, while Ghana's economic stabilisation should unlock delayed transactions.
Southern Africa
South Africa's sophisticated market continues to see:
- B-BBEE motivated transactions
- Private equity secondaries
- Infrastructure asset recycling
Key Risks
- Global monetary policy uncertainty affecting capital flows
- Political transitions in several key markets
- Commodity price volatility impacting resource-dependent economies
Conclusion
The African M&A market in 2026 presents significant opportunities for well-prepared acquirers. Success will depend on:
- Deep local market understanding
- Flexible deal structuring
- Patient capital deployment
- Strong local advisory relationships
Roven Capital continues to track these trends and advise clients on strategic transactions across the continent.
This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Market conditions are subject to change.